Contributed Commentary and Descriptions to NORTHCOM Task 2 ...

Final Report on Utility of Commercial Wireless Study A Technology Roadmap for Disaster Response
Aaron Budgor
Project Chair Ozzie Diaz
Principal Author November 2006
Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary 5
1.1 Study Background 5
1.2 Task 1 Conclusions 5
1.2.1 Wireless Business and Residential Network Background 5
1.2.2 What has changed? 6
1.3 Technologies under Consideration 7
1.4 Task 2 Conclusions 7
1.5 Task 3 Conclusions 9
2 Technologies Under Analysis 14
2.1 Internetworking and Routing 14
2.1.1 IPv4 and Routing 14
2.1.2 Mobile Ad-hoc Networking (MANET) 15
2.1.3 IPv6 16
2.2 Backhaul or Extended Area Network (EAN) 21
2.2.1 Free Space Optics 21
2.2.2 Satellite Communications 21
2.3 Backbone or Quick-Laydown Jurisdiction Area Network (JAN) 23
2.3.1 WiMax 23
2.4 Incident Area Network (IAN) Reach to End Systems 27
2.4.1 802.11b 27
2.4.2 802.11g 28
2.4.3 802.11a 29
2.4.4 802.11n 30
2.4.5 WPA2 WiFi Security 31
2.4.6 802.11s (aka mesh networking, ad-hoc networks) 32
2.4.7 CDMA 35
2.4.8 UMTS - High Speed Packet Access (HSPA) 37
2.4.9 GSM - General Packet Radio System (GPRS) 42
2.4.10 GSM - Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution (EDGE) 47
2.4.11 802.16-2005 (aka 802.16e, Mobile WiMax) 48
2.5 Convergence to Legacy (or Non-routable) Networks 49
2.5.1 3rd Generation IP Multimedia Subsystem (3G/IMS) 49
2.5.2 Unlicensed mobile access (UMA) and 3G-WLAN Inter-working 58
2.5.3 Land Mobile Radio (LMR) over IP 61
2.6 Personal Area Network (PAN) 64
2.6.1 Bluetooth (802.15.1) 64
2.6.2 WirelessUSB (802.15.3) 67
2.6.3 ZigBee (802.15.4) 68
3 Technology Recommendations 69
3.1 Introduction 69
3.1.1 Technology Maturity Cycle: 0-3 Years 69
3.2 Recommendations 80
3.2.1 Trends and Opportunities in the Market 80
3.2.2 Hypothetical Disaster Response Scenario Timeline 81
4 Appendix A 91
4.1 Terms and Definitions 91
4.1.1 Hastily Formed Network (HFN) 91
4.1.2 General Network Reference Architecture 91
4.1.3 Stoplight Comparison Criteria 93
4.1.4 Spider Chart Criteria 94
Project Participants 97 Executive Summary
1 Study Background The Worldwide Consortium for the Grid has conducted a study examining the
state of commercial wireless communications technology, deployment and
services infrastructure to enable government and non-government
organizations to reconstitute civil communications under emergency
conditions impacting large areas of the United States and contiguous
countries to which bilateral support agreements exist. In this regard the W2COG has undertaken three tasks that will:
. Analyze the state of the commercial wireless networking environments
to understand market trends and direction as well as current and
future technology that can provide a capability that can be leveraged
to enable fixed/mobile voice and data connectivity at the edge of the
deployed network to provide interoperability and seamless access to
the disaster response collaborative information environment. Propose
technology that is readily available with robust commercial base and
market share that does not rely on government support to maintain
product viability in the market place.
. Analyze and assess the market research and state of commercial
technology for commercial wireless and networking in reference to the
ability and applicability of increasing the effectiveness of the
disaster response mission. Consideration of interoperable
communications, Quality of Service per Class of Service, information
security and frequency and network management will be included.
Analysis criteria should include ability to absorb simply new wireless
communications technology over 10 year life cycles.
. Provide recommendations and alternatives, to include new developments,
test, and integration of current and new systems, to meet the disaster
response mission. A cost benefit analysis should be included for each
recommended system to allow proper ranking of alternatives (i.e., are
the Current and To Be military trunked radio solutions based on
standards that permit interoperability with commercial wireless?) The organization of this document contains all the results obtained as each
Task is completed, with conclusions from each task. 2 Task 1 Conclusions
1 Wireless Business and Residential Network Background Wireless networks and the business climate driving their adoption have made
great strides since 1990. For the first generation of cellular networks
creation of infrastructure had significant business risk. Sixteen years
later, these risks have proven to be very profitable. During the last five
years the changes and upgrades to digital wireless technology have allowed
carriers to become the powerhouses they are known for today. These carriers
are cautious of what they intend to deploy in a geographic region for
revenue reasons. However, once they commit they have rarely committed major
errors. In today's modern world, customer usage has significantly impacted
historical revenue models, such as costs + interest + profit margin in
determining estimated earnings on a platform. Revenues per capital dollar
spent have drastically changed since 2001, with earnings per dollar
dropping 85% from previous historical levels; in some cases even more than
this figure. 2 What has changed? Competition and alternative technologies have changed the wireless
landscape with improvements occurring on a 6 month timescale. These
improvements are based on what will sell, be repeatable and be sustainable
for a given period of time, normally 5+ years of life cycle. In 2006, the
handset mobile / cellular edge device lifespan is now less than 18 months,
with some locations being less than a year. This has created a superheated
market for new products, features and options for mass users to consider
when upgrading or looking for an alternative carrier when a contract term
expires or when a customer has a 'complaint'. This paradigm has also shifted other wireless technologies and the way they
have come to market. Wireless Fidelity (aka WiFi), for example, did not hit
its primary stride until 2004; this after 20 months of being in the market
and few early adopters. As soon as big industry players began to see the
value in some wireless networks, small residential market edge equipment
providers entered the market and predominantly drove it, along with
significant capital from the investment community. Now that WiFi has
saturated the marketplace, new competitive product enhancements are now
hitting the market with the same rapid pace as did the cellular mobile
market noted above. This has created new tools, application layer security and wireless feature
set tools that have come a very long way in a very short period of time. Generally speaking market forces will always work in determining critical
mass and end user acceptance. These factors introduce significant risk to
vendors participating in this space. As critical mass occurs other
innovations supporting this industry are brought to the marketplace (edge
devices such as PC Cards, WiFi PDA's, etc). As a result, there are many
WiFi enabled devices today, from dual mode residential phone hand sets, to
auto sensors for basement flood control. The standards invoked are
evolutionary and backwards compatible, thus ensuring manufacturers with a
sustained life cycle. However, the reader must be cautioned that beyond 18 months the crystal
ball for new roll-out technologies begins to get murky. Telco / wireless
carriers will not share their specific roll-out strategies for competitive
reasons. Instead what one typically encounters is the open forum IEEE /
IETF governance bodies funded by manufacturers so accuracy and time to
market and more importantly acceptance of the standards are years in the
making. And when a standard is proposed, accepted or passed, it does NOT
mean that any one manufacturer is actually going to deploy it. Prime
example is 802.20. The primary reason that it has been in suspension mode
is because two of the three primary sponsors of the group have serious
disagreements on its technical requirements as a result of alleged overt
vendor influence of the specifications. These arguments are not because it
cannot be done, but because the standard often is not to the liking of that
submitting vendor / engineer that's trying to implement what they want (in
other words, it's a lot more political than most people think).

Road mapping 10 years out is something that should be avoided because it
will be highly inaccurate. Political and business requirements will change
long before that time and at best this can be used as indicators, assuming
that no new killer application is invented. However, the notion of "future
proofing" is feasible by employing internetworking techniques and
technologies. New technology can be incorporated as new network
segment(s), but without invalidating the other routable networks in a
communications infrastructure. One example of this is 3G/IMS allowing IP
multimedia services to converge with a legacy cellular infrastructure.

As a result, the primary focus of this study is on existing technology,
tentative upgrades to existing wireless technologies and what is widely
accepted by most manufacturers and carrier / users over a 3 year outlook.

We will also focus on improvements to existi