São Paulo 07 Summit-A New BioFuels Strategy - Meetup

Final number of keystrokes: 20,787 São Paulo Ethanol Summit 2007 "Biofuels: A new Strategy for the Planet" Coordinator Roberto Rodrigues: Coordinator of Agro-business for the Getúlio Vargas
Foundation, President of the Fiesp Agro-business Upper Council and Co-chair
of the Hemispheric Ethanol Commission. Speakers
Felipe Gonzalez Marques, ex-Prime-Minister of Spain and President of the
Global Progress Foundation
Vijay Vaitheeswaran, correspondent of The Economist magazine, author of the
book Power to the People;
Luis Nassif, economics journalist for the Live Money Agency of the Brazil
Project. Roberto Rodrigues According to the Nobel Chemical prize winner, the New Zealander Alan
MacDiarmid, of the ten largest problems to be faced by humanity in the next
50 years, four will be agricultural, they are: energy, water, food and
climatic changes. One more time, the agro-business will respond with fundamental solutions
for the development of humanity. It will not be the first, nor the last.
The big challenge for agriculture in the XX century was to guarantee food
security. For the XXI century, it is the energy security. Before petroleum, the generator of energy was bio-mass. Brazil has the
opportunity to lead a project with renewable concepts, environmentally
correct and, above all, more democratic. Any country in the world can
produce their biofuel as from agro-energy. Speaker: Felipe Gonzalez
It is more difficult to give a reply to the energy question in relation to
the food one. In the seventies when I arrived in the government, the price
of a barrel of petroleum in constant money was the equivalent of US$ 90
today. I have an old worry about the non renewable energies.
In the global energy context, the expansion of demand has been stronger
than the offer capacity. This fact appears an unrivalled challenge for the
coexistence of peace, because it creates tensions and makes the
distribution of a scarce resource, more indispensable.
In this XXI century, the energy problem will have four dimensions as
recourse:
V Indispensable for the economic and social development of all the peoples
of the world;
V Key for regional integration and multiplication of development;
V Determinant for a new institutional order of peace and free coexistence;
V Sustainable in environmental terms.
In the field of agriculture and food, the critical point is the demand and
not the offer. It is strange the contraposition of biofuels and food needs.
It is a banal collocation. There is no way to avoid, at any given time, an
asymmetric shock between the necessity to feed the population with the agro-
industrial production for energy.
We continue dependent on non renewable energies like petroleum, gas and
coal, whose environmental impact has to be taken into account seriously. As
well as this, the lack of natural reserves limits the extension of their
offer above that of lack of investments. This dependence on non renewable
energy is a large scale challenge.
The petroleum companies, with rare exceptions, do not worry themselves with
diversification into other areas of energy production. Nuclear energy is
seen with much reserve. Meanwhile, our discussion is indispensable in the
energy mix, faced with the advances that have occurred in the technological
part, in the third generation stations and in the elimination of
radioactive waste.
In spite of being less polluting, the renewable sources have small weight
in the energy matrix. The situation of Brazil is unique in world terms. In
a general manner, non renewable sources correspond to 80% of the energy
offer.
My preoccupations from the nineties have sharpened in this decade: Brazil
continues as the only exception since the first and second petroleum
shocks. The prices of petroleum took off, and the investments are small to
meet the growth of the world demand. China and India, that represent a
quarter of the world population, decided to place a single production
plant. It is very little, and no one foresees a reply in the offer
sufficient to meet the demand.
We can make an analysis for each region in the world, but we haven't got
time. In front of this, we are going to give emphasis on Latin America;
where there is no lack of energy resources, but that have a late
development: in the world ambit, represents 10% of the population and 5% of
the GNP. In 2012, China will have half the world population and a GNP per
capita corresponding to double that of the Latin American territory.
Latin America has energy to resolve its problems in the development of
renewable sources. With this, it may attend the needs for employment and
conquer international importance as a function of the energy excess.
Many countries to not translate their availability of energy resources into
development when compared to other nations. Norway is an exception. In many
places, having this energy variable appears a curse instead of a blessing.
It is a true contradiction.
As it is impossible to consume energy without producing a rise in
temperature, the alternative is to search for sources with lesser impacts
on the environment and greater for development. This implies that the
citizens have a conscience. The decisions by the elite, even with the
support of the governments, will not be sufficient. The countries with high
levels of consumption and development need to contribute to a rational and
efficient use of energy.
The energy tightening will be a constant, even if we find new sources of
energy and other applications in those that are not renewable. For their
part, the developed countries do not motivate themselves to reduce the use
of a single kilowatt, while they continue in the unlimited consumption of
non renewable energy in the transport sector. It is development without
sustenance.
The development strategies for the exploration and production of energy
took a while to mature. This delay increases international tensions and
sharpens the energy offer problem.
When we say that the Middle East problem occurred because of, there is an
important basis of truth. In relation to other regions, the Muslim Arab
world is more turbulent, as a function of having 40% of the offer of non
renewable energy in the globe. A blockage in the Ormuz Extreme, through
where pass 35% of the world petroleum offer, has serous repercussions. For
this, I believe that the large petroleum companies, principally the private
ones, will not make investment strategies without a push from the
governments.
As the disputes for energy control are very old, it is important to
carefully watch control of the resources. The situation of crisis in the
offer, with the increase in the incorporation of large areas with
profitable ends, puts world harmony in danger.
We need to open the debate on nuclear energy seriously. A discussion not
only from the point of view of technological improvements in its
exploration and use, but also in the implantation of rules for a non
proliferation treaty.
There may not be supposed the absence of an international law or a
discriminatory interpretation of the non proliferation treaty. The large
NPT watchers, who have nuclear energy for peaceful and military use, are
contrary to the non proliferation. But designs of good faith may help a
consistent disarming in nuclear materials.
We have to develop the energy theme in global terms, with all the factors
that affect the offer and demand. The research and the development of
renewable sources will allow the calculation and correction of the effects
in the course of happenings.
The position of the United Nations is worrying. On one side, they gave a
warning about global warming. On the other, think that biofuels may affect
the food production capacity of the world and cause an asymmetric shock.
This is a false ideological debate. It may have petroleum interests. The
sources of renewable energy employ and valorize the work of the field, with
a positive balance for the countries in development and the less favored
layers of the population.
The solution of the Sub-Saharan Africa, in terms of energy sufficiency,
employment and development, with its implications on migratory flows, is in
the discovery of renewable energy sources, like biofuels.
The scenarios of a fall in petroleum prices and its derivatives are
equivocal. They will only happen in cases of catastrophes with falls in
economic growth. For more than 25 years China has grown at an annual rate
of 9%, without perspectives of a change in this tendency. India came along
and will come to Latin America. The rate of growth in each region will
depend on their own capacity to take advantage of energy.
There is space for the biofuels to compete with the non renewable energies
in an open economy, based on the investigation and development, with the
elimination of trade barriers.
There are false ideological debates on Latin American integration. The
roads, the gas ducts and the oil ducts are superior strategies to all
ideological discourses. True integration increases economic and commercial
relations. This integrates more than the political disputes. Who says this
now, is a politician.
Brazil made an intelligent strategy, with a global vision, in the energy
area. It is a specific evolution of the country, as if it was an island.
There was not even any involvement of neighboring countries. But the South
relationship and the South is an important step in terms of development for
the world, which will be complete with the South and North relationship.
Brazil and La