Impact Defense Core UM 7wk - Open Evidence Archive

Impact Defense
***Relations US-China Relations Inevitable
Alt cause- Taiwan is the core issue in US-China relations
Tucker 09- Professor of History at Georgetown University and the Edmund A.
Walsh School of Foreign Service, and Senior Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson
International Center for Scholars. She is the author of the just-published
book Strait Talk: United States-Taiwan Relations and the Crisis with China.
Her earlier books include Patterns in the Dust, Uncertain Friendships, and
the edited volumes Dangerous Strait, China Confidential, and Lyndon Johnson
Confronts the World
(Nancy, "At the Core of U.S.-China Relations," Asia Policy #8, Muse) U.S.-China relations are never as good or as bad as they seem and rarely do
they remain long at any imagined peak or nadir. One of the few constants in
the changing dynamic-vital to judging the depth and breadth of relations-is
the issue of Taiwan. The contention over Taiwan's status and future
circumscribes prospects for peace and mutual benefit between the United
States and China. This issue necessitates interaction but undermines
cooperation. It demonstrates the vast differences of vision and practice
between the two powers in political, economic, and security affairs. Even
as Washington and Beijing work together on vital issues such as
international finance, law enforcement, climate change, counterterrorism,
and North Korean nuclear proliferation, Taiwan remains at the core of the
relationship, ensuring mistrust and suspicion. If Taiwan had become part of
the People's Republic of China in 1949, confrontations between Washington
and Beijing would have been fewer and the opportunities for reconciliation
and cooperation far greater. Progress on contemporary problems would be
easier. The Cold War determined initial policies and practices. The United
States opposed "Red China" and supported the "Free Chinese" in the context
of the ideological competition then defining the world community. When the
United States and China began to normalize relations in the 1970s and
Washington suddenly had more Communist friends than did Moscow, the place
of Taipei rapidly eroded. Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S.-Taiwan-
China triangle has been both more and less critical, more and less of an
obstacle to crafting what successive administrations in Washington have
termed a positive, constructive, candid, cooperative, and comprehensive
U.S.-China relationship. By the 21st century, the original alignments would
most probably have vanished except for the flourishing of democracy in
Taiwan.
Resilient Relations resilient- constant cooperation will only increase
Wenzhao, 09 - Senior Researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
(Tao, 2/17/09, "Positive signs ahead for Sino-US relations," China Daily,
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2009-02/17/content_7482140.htm) The direction of Sino-US relations under Barack Obama's presidency is
drawing increasing attention as the new US administration takes shape. The
new president made remarks about China during his election campaign and
wrote for the US Chamber of Commerce in China an article on the prospect of
Sino-US ties in his term of office. In January, newly assigned Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton also deliberated on US foreign policy in a Senate
hearing. Obama acknowledges that common interests exist between China and
the US and welcomes a rising China. He realizes China's remarkable
achievement in the past 30 years has driven economic development in
neighboring nations and believes its emergence as a big power is
irreversible and the US should cooperate to deal with emerging challenges.
The US and China have had effective and smooth cooperation on a wide range
of economic and security issues, from anti-terror, nonproliferation and
climate change to the restructuring of the extant international financial
system. This is expected to be the new administration's mainstream China
policy and dominate the future of Sino-US relations. As multilateralism
believers, both President Obama and Vice-President Joe Biden advocate
international cooperation instead of unilateral action to deal with
international challenges and resolve disputes. Fruitful cooperation between
China and the US on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue clearly indicates
constructive bilateral and multilateral cooperation on sensitive issues can
help ease strained regional situations. The new US administration has
expressed its wishes to continue to promote a stable Korean Peninsula and
to improve ties with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. The new
administration has also expressed expectations for cooperation with China
on other international issues, such as the Iranian nuclear and Darfur
challenges. China now plays a crucial role in the world's political
landscape and we look forward to cooperative ties with it, Clinton recently
said. Ever-deepening economic and trade ties, as the cornerstone of
bilateral relations, are expected to continue to develop during Obama's
tenure.
Relations resilient- both leaders want to keep relations strong
Wan 10- Staff Writer at Wall Street Journal
(William, "China: U.S. relations 'sound'," http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2010/09/06/AR2010090603660.html, 9/7) At a time of tension in U.S.-China relations, a three-day visit by senior
U.S. officials to Beijing began Monday with signs that Chinese leaders want
to smooth over some key frictions. "Sound" and "stable" was how a top
Communist Party official described the two countries' relationship while
receiving the U.S. delegation, which included National Economic Council
Director Lawrence H. Summers and deputy national security adviser Thomas
Donilon. The meeting comes after the U.S.-China relationship has been
battered on several fronts. The United States has fought with China during
the past few months over China's trade surplus and currency valuation, with
little to show for it. U.S.-South Korea military exercises near the Chinese
coast have incensed Chinese officials, as did President Obama's meeting
with the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, and a U.S. arms
sale to Taiwan, both of which happened earlier this year. Rhetoric on both
sides has ratcheted up in recent weeks on national security issues - with
China's state-owned party papers denouncing U.S. interference in South
China Sea issues, and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton responding
in July at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting that the area
is part of her country's "national interest," which set off more fuming in
party papers. On Monday, both sides expressed hope that meetings between
U.S. and Chinese officials scheduled in coming weeks may help thaw some of
the recent difficulties. "Although there were some disturbances in China-
U.S. relations, in April and May after President Obama and President Hu
Jintao had two meetings, our relations have gotten back on a sound track,"
Li Yuanchao, head of the section in the Chinese government that oversees
senior party appointments, said before the closed-door talks began. Later
Monday, according to the Associated Press, Summers told Vice Premier Wang
Qishan that Obama "has emphasized for us the importance he attaches to a
very strong relationship between the United Sates and China." Among this
visit's top issues, Summers added, is setting up a trip for Hu to
Washington. Still to come in the next few months are Chinese Premier Wen
Jiabao's visit in a few weeks to the U.N. General Assembly in New York, a
meeting of the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade and the
Group of 20 summit, where additional China-U.S. talks may occur. Hu is
likely to visit the United States in January. Some of the most pressing
issues in this week's meetings involve the Korean Peninsula, said Shi
Yinhong, an international studies professor at Beijing's Renmin University.
There have been icy feelings all around, he said, since the Cheonan, a
warship belonging to U.S. ally South Korea, was sunk near the border of
China's ally, North Korea. "Neither China nor the U.S. wants to make a
concession on this," Shi said, "but the two countries also don't seem to
want the relationship to deteriorate again." No impact- US-China relations will not succeed- inevitable conflicts and
disagreements
Art 10- Christian A. Herter Professor of International Relations at
Brandeis University and Director of MIT's Seminar XXI Program
(Robert J., "The United States and the Rise of China: Implications for the
Long Haul," Political Science Quarterly) The workings of these three factors should make us cautiously optimistic
about keeping Sino-American relations on the peaceful rather than the
warlike track. The peaceful track does not, by any means, imply the absence
of political and economic conflicts in Sino-American relations, nor does it
foreclose coercive diplomatic gambits by each against the other. What it
does mean is that the conditions are in place for war to be a low-
probability event, if policymakers are smart in both states (see below),
and that an all-out war is nearly impossible to imagine. By the historical
standards of recent dominant-rising state dyads, this is no mean feat. In
sum, there will be some security dilemma dynamics at work in the U.S.-China
relationship, both over Taiwan and over maritime supremacy in East Asia,
should China decide eventually to contest America's maritime hegemony, and
there will certainly be political and military conflicts, but nuclear
weapons should work to mute their severity because the security of each
state's homeland will never be in doubt as long as each maintains a seconds
trike capability vis-A-vis the other. If two states cannot conquer one
another, then the character of their relatio